Friday, December 31, 2010
Thursday, December 30, 2010
Wednesday, December 29, 2010
Tuesday, December 28, 2010
Monday, December 27, 2010
Friday, December 24, 2010
Thursday, December 23, 2010
Wednesday, December 22, 2010
Tuesday, December 21, 2010
Monday, December 20, 2010
Thursday, December 16, 2010
HDFC Bank - 750 cr. from- 400cr.
ICICI - 450cr. from- 301cr.
HDFC - 400cr. from- 320cr.
Tuesday, December 14, 2010
The Indian market is undergoing a secondary correction, after which it will be headed much higher
The markets have been correcting over the past few weeks and lot of traders and investors are asking themselves the question whether the bull market is over or if it is just a temporary pause and correction in the overall bull market. The Nifty made an "intermediate top" at 6,339 which was very close to its all-time high of 6,357 touched in January 2008. From there it corrected to 5,690, then bounced back from those levels to 6,080 levels and fell to below 5,800. Today it closed above 5900. What next?
Well, we are working with the assumption that while Nifty has resistance around 6,357 which is its all-time high and the index can fall all the way to 5,350, a new journey for the market has begun a few months ago which will take it to much higher levels over the next few years-a target of 30,000 to 50,000 on the Sensex over the next three to seven years is imaginable and achievable. The market has chosen to correct first before the upmove after hitting 6,330 in early November. This is a "secondary correction of the primary bull market" which generally takes off anywhere between 33% and 66% of the previous primary upmove.
The Nifty has formed certain bearish formations like "three black crows", of which first is a "bearish engulfing pattern" and "dark cloud cover" on the weekly charts, "evening star" on the long term monthly charts, in the process of forming a "high wave candle" on the long-term quarterly charts, "black turnaround line" on the weekly three-line break charts, conversion from yang (thick bullish) to yin (thin bearish) line on the weekly 4% kagi charts, breakdown of price oscillators (RSI, ROC, MACD, KST, DI, Stochastics), fall of the 50-day MA, and so on.
The secondary correction will have a first target of 5,650 on the Nifty (18,800 on Sensex) which is a reasonable support (falling window). That is the level when the Sensex had hit the lower circuit in January 2008 and which was the beginning of the previous bear market. Without going into detail, looking at the chart patterns, candle sticks, neo-classical wave, time series analysis, retracements, trendlines, MAs, oscillators, etc, if the 5,650 level does not hold then the next support is at 5,350 and the final support-as it could go down further-is 5,050 (17,200). If for whatever reason the level of 5,050 is not held on the Nifty, which I personally don't believe will happen, then we have to question the validity of our assumption of it being a "secondary correction" of the primary bear market. At every major support level, that is 5,650, 5,350 and finally 5,050 we have to look at "bottom formation" patterns on the charts. However, once this secondary correction is over, the primary bull market will resume, which will have a first target of 7,000 (23,500) over the next medium-term.
The breadth has been very negative last week and lots of mid- and small-cap stocks have been butchered. The BSE Mid-cap index was trading at around 7,260, a level when the Sensex was at 15,600. It has major support around 6,300. Similarly, the BSE Small-cap was trading at 8,745 last week, which corresponds to the Sensex trading at 15,400. The BSE Small-cap index has major support around 8,000. The only positive thing in all the recent carnage is that the mid- and small-caps have corrected too sharp and fast, which is what happens during "secondary corrections" of primary bull markets. Now, the large-caps might correct somewhat over the next few days/weeks and then an "intermediate bottom" might be formed in the Nifty at close to the levels stated above.
To understand the current price movements more clearly, let us look at the 20-year chart of the Sensex. The Sensex was at around 690 in February 1990, from where a bull market began and it topped out at 4,650 in March 1992 (when the Harshad Mehta securities scam broke). Then it touched a bottom at 2,000 in March 1993 which was a bear market bottom. However, this was not the commencement of a new bull market. It then made another top at 4,615 in August 1994 and a cyclical bottom at 2,700 in December 1996. The real bear market bottom was made in October 1998 at 2,785. The new bull market which began there, took the Sensex to 6,175 in February 2000 where it topped out with the 'technology bubble'.
The Sensex crashed to 2,600 by September 2001 which was a cyclical bottom. The real bear market bottom was then made in August 2003 at nearly 2,900 from where the new bull market took it to 21,206 in January 2008. Kindly note, the four corrections in the interim, that is April 2004 (the Congress party victory in the Lok Sabha polls and formation of government with the support of the Left), October 2005 (small-caps bubble), April 2006 (mid-caps correction), and August 2007 (first news of sub-prime) were all secondary corrections within the primary bull market.
After making the bull market top in January 2008, it entered a corrective phase and made a cyclical bottom at 7,697 in October 2008 and the real bear market bottom at 8,050 in March 2009. From there on the new bull market commenced which made an intermediate top at 21,108 in November 2010. Currently, we are going through a secondary bull market correction which is likely to make a bottom somewhere between 18,800 and 17,200. And once the secondary correction bottom is in place, we will have a first target of 23,500 and then the longer-term target of anywhere between 30,000 and 50,000 over the next three to seven years.
Fundamentally, most of the factors remain long-term positive with the P/E at 15.2x FY2012 estimated earnings, which is at 9% premium to the long-term 10-year average, but below the peak bubble P/E of around 25x in January 2000 or January 2008. P/BV is 2.8x FY2012E which is at 15% premium to the long-term 10-year average, but ROE at 17.8% is lower than LTA of 18.7%. Market cap/GDP at 1.1x is not cheap, but below the peak of 1.8x in January 2008 and the earnings yield of the Sensex is 6.6% compared to an 8.1% bond yield (10-year GSec) and the earnings yield/bond yield is 0.81x as compared to the long-term 15-year average of 0.88x.
However, the major negative remains the high short-term interest rates. The yield curve from being steep a few months back has now in fact become inverted. Having said this, the positive factor is that the long-term (10-year GSec) yields have been in the range of 7.5% to 8.1% when short-term rates increased by almost 600 bps from 3% to 9% over the past few months. Hence, the short-term interest rates have risen too much, too fast. These kinds of rates are certainly not sustainable and they would come down. The peaking of interest rates might correspond with the end of the "secondary correction" in equities. Each asset class performs differently during different phases of the economic cycle. The general rule for different stages of an economic cycle and the preferred asset class during each stage is described below.
- Interest rates peak and bond prices bottom out-preferred asset class GSecs.
- Demand for credit declines-preferred asset class GSecs.
- Central bank increases money supply-preferred asset class GSecs and corporate bonds.
- Equities bottom out-preferred asset class equities.
- Commodities bottom out-preferred asset class cyclical and commodity stocks/commodities.
Currently, we are in the stage where over the next few weeks/months interest rates are likely to peak out, bond prices should bottom out, demand for credit might decline at higher interest rates, The central bank will increase money supply and liquidity, which it is already doing daily through repos, and equities will bottom out. (That is, the secondary correction in equities which we are seeing currently will end.)
To conclude, a good strategy might be to shift funds from short-term money market instruments to long-term gilts/bonds or lock into long-term rates and keep funds ready to buy in the "secondary equity market correction" so as to benefit when the interest rates peak out and start coming down and equities resume their primary uptrend.
(Mehrab Irani is general manager, investments, with Tata Investment Corporation Limited. He has over a decade of experience in investment research, portfolio management and investment banking. The views expressed in the article are his own.)
Friday, December 10, 2010
Thursday, December 9, 2010
Wednesday, December 8, 2010
Tuesday, December 7, 2010
Monday, December 6, 2010
Today banknifty opened firm in 12465 and touched the days high of 12479 and sustained side ways more than hours and now weakness was seen as nifty showed upmove.The nifty opened today gap up 6035 and moved up and touched a day high of 6094. In our view the 6093 was a hurdle for the upmove/pull back rally.It was struck there and slowly fell down day low of 5988.
The banknifty start falling faster than nifty and touched the days low of 12046 and lastly traded in 12061.The banknifty now took support in 12000 level if tomorrow it breaks this it may fall down to 11790 level.The Nifty now weak below 5960 level.Last week nifty and banknifty shown up move day by day and today happen to be the first day of the week it shown weakness and closed weak.The banknifty expected to be trade in side ways on the coming sessions...if nifty gather strength and move above 6100 will confirm a rally. The nifty seems in consolidation mode all these days so it may explode.On the other hand banknifty shown kind of maturity in 12400 as this level attarct positional selling the buying was low.So when the supply was more and demand is less it fall down...thats what happening. Apart from this the recent 'Housing scam' made a uncertainity in Bankning &Financial sectors.it caused fear among the trader to go long.
Thursday, December 2, 2010
Wednesday, December 1, 2010
Tuesday, November 30, 2010
Monday, November 29, 2010
Friday, November 26, 2010
Thursday, November 25, 2010
Wednesday, November 24, 2010
Tuesday, November 23, 2010
Monday, November 22, 2010
Sunday, November 21, 2010
Friday, November 19, 2010
Thursday, November 18, 2010
The above 'EOD'- chart shows the banknifty now turn to be '-ve' and a jump above 12800 may possibly lead to a new highs...But as of now the nifty is showing great weakness a further slide down is on card now.The icici,Sbi and many banks shown huge selling today.
Monday, November 15, 2010
Friday, November 12, 2010
Wednesday, November 10, 2010
Tuesday, November 9, 2010
Where the Nifty and Banknifty Ends it upward move? Almost unanswerable question.On the day of deepawali the indian market witnessed a all time new high.The Nifty broke away the previous top 6349 and Banknifty was made a high of 13400 level and reached it top.The Sbi gone to 3400 level and many many scrips made new year high's..The Sensex is nearing the 21000 mark and no wonder it will cross this boundry...The COAL INDIA made our market much stronger when it touched 340 level.. the fund inflow become surplus in our market.
The Indain market is seems to be a trend setters for the Global cue's..
That too after the US-President Obama visit and his inspiring talk in the parliment made many world leaders and ceo's attention to india. He quoted- "india is not emerging country,its a emerged nation". Our nation is the attractive gold mine for the real investors and the FII's buying everday is rising and almost more than about 2-months the fund inflow to our indian stock market, mainly the value based companies have been wittnessed huge buying by these institutional investors. Many of the companies stock prices are multiplyed by 100-600% growth which is an amazing sign of growth.Our own clients of 'SEED WEALTH CLIENTS' made massive money.
So the remaining days/months going to attract more potential FII's/Investors to our market and the sensex will make another new highs.I also, wish you to read this as well..
Written by a Pakistani journalist about India- Must forward to all Indians!
Dear All...Visit here to read this> http://wealthtrainer.blogspot.com/
An article written by a Pakistani journalist about India .. Must forward to all Indians!
Coming Back to Banknifty...
The banknifty whenever it reaches the chennal top a huge profit booking seen and it used to stand still for few sessions.The deepawali day it made a new high and afterwards it fell down about 300-400 points and today it opened in gap down and touched a low of 12990 where its sustained for a while and a certain jerk made to cross 13150 and gone up to 13187 level and fell from there to 15o and the 13150 seems a strong support for banknifty at present and it took support in this level and during the afternoon session went to another new day high of 13240 level and closed strong.We made a profit of 100+points today without any sl hit.We purposefully avoided trading few hours when the showed choppiness.
As i wrote in my earlier post the positional traders who took long can hold with trailing SL and avoid fresh positional sell at present.One can do intraday with proper SL and can make 50 points in a day easily by using all the swings.That will be an ideal choice at present.Hence it made a rally of 1000 points within few days to a week.
'Not A Time to Risk Your Capital'
Wednesday, November 3, 2010
Thursday, October 28, 2010
Wednesday, October 27, 2010
As i waa busy in some media interview unable to update in time.....
What we can expect now?
The 9.15 market opening time gave us a good oppurtunity personally i feel it is a very good system that curbs so much of market speculators and the high jump gap ups/downs trap will not be there much as it used to be in the past.
The market perspective now at present is down,as per today closing the market has to slide down further...but the hedge funds may play major role and try to lift it up by gap ups/runnining gaps...it this attempt fails the nifty may take support in 5800+ level and banknifty will be sideways for 2 days till f&o closing.After f&o it may touch 11800 level and chances are bright to bounce back to the previous highs.
Tuesday, October 26, 2010
The banknifty struck in the 'Range Bound Trading' in last few days and i expect it Will not sustain this range now on the coming days...The banknifty opened today in 12500 level and there on shown weakness and fell down to 12400 level >now the 12380 range seems to be a hurdle for break down a opening below this level bring fresh selling and can slide down to 12200 level. Tomorrow a gap up opening above 12545 level only add strength or it slides down and go out of this range bound on the coming sessions.As i wrote in my y.day post avoid long..