Live Market

Monday, September 20, 2010

The Money Power And The Peaks Of Gambling

Dear Traders/ Readers,
Last few days i have not posted ' The Pre-market Banknifty' view 's is not because, Neither i was too busy nor to lazy.
To be honest with you, i am not keen in writing as the market is not bound to any technicalities.As it is driven by the vested intrest of the market operators world wide(Mainly by hedge funds) and a certain rapid surge of market made many retail investors/ Traders to cry. So what ever view i may give is going to be futile in its attempts . Considering this, I didn't post anything as it may be a simple assumption/intellectual stuff about the market and nothing helps you in the real market .
Today i happen to visit my other friends sites and happen to see these two intresting post's that exactly reflect my mind. i bring out here the same for your views too.

Picked up from some forum

BSE = Bombay Se Exit

NSE = Nation Se Exit

F/O = Future Over

Nifty = No Income For This Year

FII = Fraud Int'l Investor

BTST = Buy Today Suicide Tomorrow

1.Who Is Driving The Rally?
The Kind of violent moves that we have witnessed has surprised everyone, this rally seems to have been driven my Hedge Funds. They are fuelling this rally worldwide with the help of cheap money i.e. near to zero interest rates but this kind of move is typical of impending sell-off because the last moves are always violent and creates the euphoria so much so that people are actually afraid to short the stocks. It requires the guts to call the top in such market because in such markets technicals, astro, everything fails, keep in mind these kind of moves happen only when the large reversal is looming, people are forced to buy high-priced stocks, media is manipulated.


The rise in Nifty Futures seems to be a one way game - 650 points in 14 trading sessions (Avg run rate of 46 per day). This (possibly) last leg of the rise reminds me of Twenty20 cricket match where the last over is meant for hit out or get out. For the market students its the best practical example to experience what money power can do.
There is not much to say in these circumstances except that 6010 and 6075 can be resistance levels. But considering the US markets at the time of writing, be prepared for continuation of today's game. Will it continue this way for a long time - the answer is a definite NO. Either the buyers will have to rationalise their thinking as the market goes higher or there could be some event which forces the participants to revise their thinking. As such, new high on the first day of the week reaffirms my thinking that this week could provide a turning point as stated in my last weekly post.
As per the Turning Points Grid 5950 is the first level, below which weakness may start. However, in the current market mood it is better to be on the buy side and benefit from the rally or be a bystander and let the storm pass. I feel not doing anything at such irrational times is a safer and better option. If you recall, mood in the last weeks of 2007 was very similar. As such no market can go up/down continuously - this 14 day period itself seems to be overstretched to me.
Put Call Ratio of Index Options decreased to 1.11 as against 1.36 on the previous day.
Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.
With Best Wishes,
Ketan Asher.


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