Banknifty Future Trend Tomorrow

Today banknifty opened in marginal gap down and showed weakness almost the whole day due to the weakness of SBI and other banks.Where as the Nifty future went to the new high during the end of the market closing.This caused mainly due to the rise of infosys about 70+ points from yesterday to today.

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What can we expect on 5/04/2010?

Today the bank nifty future came down to 10360 level and rose to 10460 during the end.The banknifty shown weakness's whole day and was seen choppy trade within a narrow zone.

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When i look at the banknifty composites - The 12-Banks in this is > '10 banks declines' Vs '2 banks advances'. The banknifty now in over bought zone and the further upmove may end here near 10500 and not a surprise if the correction takes place any time.The other reason here is, if i am right the banknifty will face a Double Top near 600 level and considering this fact we must anticipate a reversal soon.The banknifty now has a support near 10230 level breaking down this range 200-250 will bring huge selling in banknifty .Not only this the bank like Sbi,icici,axis,hdfc,bank of india has breached a high recently and any time the profit booking will take place,that will bring down the banknifty down side, inspite of nifty upmove.The infosys& Reliance weakning on the coming days may weaken the nifty too.

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i also would like to include the other bloggers message to your attention.

Bhavan said...
It seems that everybody is very much afraid of the move the market is making.

Cautious one should be but with every upmove why this feeling that the market is going to crash?

A lot of money is involved at this stage and many more other things are at stake so a big fall is questionable.Market is always full of rumours on both sides all known bulls and bear analysts sing a different tune every time a new high/low is created but we all should know that these' quotes' as well as figures are always manipulated or calculated by some experts.With lots of TA knowledge being sold (taught) by big institutions and new softwares being available easily the manipulators have to design their moves in a very sophisticated way so as to acheive their goals (long/short ).If one is silently observing you get a feel that all the crucial levels are being protected. If they simply take a unidirectional move they loose their chances of scalping as well as throwing away their hinderances.

They are well aware of al the big policy decisions and so plan accordingly three very important policy decisions are in the offing NBF licensce, Gas allocation OMCS to get money from the govt ?

next week and decontrolling of sugar also impending change in mining policy.So it is very unlikely that a very big fall is likely (4000 levels) except something goes drastically wrong.Even Obama came out with a statement that their financial reforms are paying well reputation at stake?

Maybe a correction is going to be there when a sector shift will take place mostly banks will take a side seat and oil and natural gas and capital goods will takeover.So all we should be doing is watch the daily prices and act as they unfold.For people who are new or with lesser capacity to bear a loss

(1) must always make a plan and stick to it these way they will be minimizing their looses if any.(2)should never/rarely take an overnight position (for eg. two days back few brokerages had given a sell call for bank of india on the preresult day @around RS.398 with a sl of 416 in just closing minutes with a stbt.next day when the market opened BOI opened @ 435 (app.) now one future lot is 1000 so a person simply following that call would have lost around rs.35000/- roughly).

3)should never trade in unknown territory

4)follow the TA in a very disciplined way

5)Follow the prices as prices do not lie.

BANKNIFTY FUTURE Where it is heading now?

The banknifty future friday closed near 10130 level and today it opened in gap up near 10199 and showed (punched) a low at-10171 and that happened to be a day's low and it rose to 10240 levels in few minutes and 280 levels it stood for a longer time and went to 320. During the market closing it moved up so quickly to 10398 levels.The low to high difference is about 250 points.After a long time the banknifty future shown high volatality today.

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What made it to reach 10400 levels?

The Sbi and icici bank and other banks were shown great strength today.Especially the SBI went to the new high Rs.2600.00.The nifty trend last week was in correction mode and today it struggled to cross over 5420 level and finally during the closing the Sbi took charge and lifted both the index's up and nifty breached the 440 level that shows the suspended correction.

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Where the market is heading now?

Today, all the banks in the banknifty composite was in bull mode and almost all other banks are also were up and took up the nifty and banknifty to the higher range.The nifty now has minor hurdle at 5460 level.Tomorrow we have to see this level, if nifty sustain above 420 and crossed the 460 levels the positional short holders have to be alert to reverse the position.

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The Reliance industries did'nt participated today, and it shows some symptoms of weakness and it is also potential enough to pull down the nifty below 5420 level.The other possibilities is, if the Reliance act bullish tomorrow it may lead the rally.

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The Banknifty today crossed over the important trend line near 10300 and it is usuall that,the market will reverse when it hits the trend line.But today banknifty showed unusual bullishness and reached beyond and touched a new high 10399* (The spot was in 50+ points premium).The banking stocks are still strong and may take it to further high's. If the Sbi/icici bank or Reliance may turn weak means there are chances for a reversal in banknifty.Now the banknifty looks firm above 10270 level and down to it one can go short with appropriate SL. The 10098 and down to it will make a break down/correction in banknifty.We must look out the move of SBI & Reliance tomorrow to decide the positional trade.

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Now, i feel the market is witnessing a critical zone and difficult to predict positional longs/ short. so better trade with sl or sqaure all your positions in intraday.

The NIFTY- Down Move and The Banknifty- Up Move

Nifty-spot

Banknifty-Spot

Today, i gave a pre-market view to all my clients at 8.30am...In that , i have mentioned today market will open in gap down and trade in range bound within 5370-5430 (future) and the market does exactly the same.The nifty low was 5370 and high was 5422.The banknifty were pulled up by banks mainly it was lead by SBI,Bank of Baroda,Hdfc etc.We all are longing to see the banknifty coming down..every day i recive so many query's about the bank nifty and most of the people are asking me will the banknifty come down? My answer to all of them are just be cool it will.The yesterday post i wrote the index hedging nifty vs banknifty and today too we have observed the same. The nifty was in sell mode and failed in its upmove...all it can stretch out to 5415 from 380 levels and went down to 370 level by broke down the earlier day low.Where as the banknifty was shown great strength and rose upto 10194.00 level.But during the closing it came down to 10112 level and close weak.

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The consistent move up is caused the huge FII's buy > FII inflow in July 2010 totaled Rs 12,179 crore.The state bank of india is going up day by day and it reached to 2520 + levels.Now what will happen in monday? The monday market may open in gap down as per todays closing.we also need to consider the global cue's tonight.Now the nifty has a major support@5355 level and breaking down will lead market to 5210 level.The banknifty technically fulfiled all its up move and shown its strength enough now it has to move down to 10000 level for a positional sell.