Today banknifty opened in marginal gap down and showed weakness almost the whole day due to the weakness of SBI and other banks.Where as the Nifty future went to the new high during the end of the market closing.This caused mainly due to the rise of infosys about 70+ points from yesterday to today.
What can we expect on 5/04/2010?
Today the bank nifty future came down to 10360 level and rose to 10460 during the end.The banknifty shown weakness's whole day and was seen choppy trade within a narrow zone.
When i look at the banknifty composites - The 12-Banks in this is > '10 banks declines' Vs '2 banks advances'. The banknifty now in over bought zone and the further upmove may end here near 10500 and not a surprise if the correction takes place any time.The other reason here is, if i am right the banknifty will face a Double Top near 600 level and considering this fact we must anticipate a reversal soon.The banknifty now has a support near 10230 level breaking down this range 200-250 will bring huge selling in banknifty .Not only this the bank like Sbi,icici,axis,hdfc,bank of india has breached a high recently and any time the profit booking will take place,that will bring down the banknifty down side, inspite of nifty upmove.The infosys& Reliance weakning on the coming days may weaken the nifty too.
i also would like to include the other bloggers message to your attention.
It seems that everybody is very much afraid of the move the market is making.
Cautious one should be but with every upmove why this feeling that the market is going to crash?
A lot of money is involved at this stage and many more other things are at stake so a big fall is questionable.Market is always full of rumours on both sides all known bulls and bear analysts sing a different tune every time a new high/low is created but we all should know that these' quotes' as well as figures are always manipulated or calculated by some experts.With lots of TA knowledge being sold (taught) by big institutions and new softwares being available easily the manipulators have to design their moves in a very sophisticated way so as to acheive their goals (long/short ).If one is silently observing you get a feel that all the crucial levels are being protected. If they simply take a unidirectional move they loose their chances of scalping as well as throwing away their hinderances.
They are well aware of al the big policy decisions and so plan accordingly three very important policy decisions are in the offing NBF licensce, Gas allocation OMCS to get money from the govt ?
next week and decontrolling of sugar also impending change in mining policy.So it is very unlikely that a very big fall is likely (4000 levels) except something goes drastically wrong.Even Obama came out with a statement that their financial reforms are paying well reputation at stake?
Maybe a correction is going to be there when a sector shift will take place mostly banks will take a side seat and oil and natural gas and capital goods will takeover.So all we should be doing is watch the daily prices and act as they unfold.For people who are new or with lesser capacity to bear a loss
(1) must always make a plan and stick to it these way they will be minimizing their looses if any.(2)should never/rarely take an overnight position (for eg. two days back few brokerages had given a sell call for bank of india on the preresult day @around RS.398 with a sl of 416 in just closing minutes with a stbt.next day when the market opened BOI opened @ 435 (app.) now one future lot is 1000 so a person simply following that call would have lost around rs.35000/- roughly).
3)should never trade in unknown territory
4)follow the TA in a very disciplined way
5)Follow the prices as prices do not lie.