Banknifty View for 29-07-2011

Dear friends,
My yesterday post i have mentioned volatility in today's market but i didn't expect this drastic gap down.The Sgx Nifty shown a weakness and we were ready to manage today battle and gone short twice in nifty and Bank nifty and made good intraday gain.We sold in 10940 level and place buy at 10864 in august future and that was achieved...But we advised to cover in 900 level many clients as there could be some bounce at the end...But the market was unable to go up..as there was selling consistently.The Nifty was unable to reach the opening high..!!

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The Nifty now again slide to 5420 level and that is the last support for bulls to have some hope if not broken..if broken the market may witness major fall.The Bank nifty last support as per our data is 10743. Above 11140 it can sustain in sideways.

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Banknifty View for 28.07.2011

Today the market made a lack luster..We just made in intraday trade and made intraday gains as usual and skipped any position as the tomorrow market may face volatility as the F&O closing..So better trade mild/conservatively unless you find a firm direction.

In today the Nifty and banknifty made a struggle to move up as the selling pressure was pushed it down and trader were afraid of long as the market yesterday threatened every one.Today the Nifty opening and high was the same..The Nifty was not able to cross the 5590 level..So its a selling area as of the trend now..May be it attract buy above 5640 level.Banknifty above 11240 only we can expect a relief rally/retracement.

We also need to consider one thing the yesterday running gap down was unfilled and may be after f&o closing the market attempt to do "island of reversal." so trade with SL.

Banknifty View for 27.07.2011

We wrote in our yesterday preview about market today..This prediction almost proved right today...for your view we post the same here.

The banknifty future Friday made a days low of 11110 and closed in 11310 and today it manage to open in gap down at 11297 and touched a days low of 11240 and it stayed almost 4-hours in a sideways range below 300 and certainly spiked above 200 DMA and gone to the days high of 11445 and lastly traded in 406 level.Many time the banknifty witness/attracted the selling pressure at this level near 11440 level and fell down back to 11100-200 level.This is what we expect on the coming days.This hike is also caused due to the F&O closing on 28.7.2011.We need to consider the tomorrow the RBi policy of hiking another Repo Rate...!! At this scenario , as usual we will not advise to go fresh Longs.The Greece and US debt crisis may accelerate further. The Nifty manage to cross over the 5655 level ,but have not crossed the 200DMA.If it fall by any chance below 50DMA another fall or a range bound market between 5410-700 may repeat once again.Above 5740 the Nifty may attract fresh/panic buying.Today the market shown a running gaps between 648-700 level.One can aggressively go short in Nifty with strict Stop Loss at 5740.The target we can expect are 5630/610 and 5578 level. At this point of time the banking stocks is better to avoid /remaining in long.The .25 Bps rate hike will have minor -impact on banks...but if the hike is above .25Bps or .50BPS may have great '- 'ive'impact on banking sectors.


Now what to expect from market?

The banknifty today took support in 11057 and it may move side ways to 11240 level and consolidate again.The nifty can open in gap up tomorrow near 5620 or it can try to claim 640 level...As the Option segment+ hedging may make this hike.The coming Thursday the f&o closing so better trade in Aug month.

Today we asked all our clients to place buy for banknifty for our short at 11183 when market was trading near 11420..Many clients wondered/asked me do u expect great fall? i said yes. from 11400 in no time it fell down to 11057 level.it fell down beyond our expectation.One has to be alert and always inculcate a habit of placing orders soon after a position is taken.

'The market is capable of beating anyone!! however they are sound in technicals..So trade wisely and make a trading plan. Without any plan dont ever trade.'

Banknifty Future View for 26.07.2011

The banknifty future Friday made a days low of 11110 and closed in 11310 and today it manage to open in gap down at 11297 and touched a days low of 11240 and it stayed almost 4-hours in a sideways range below 300 and certainly spiked above 200 DMA and gone to the days high of 11445 and lastly traded in 406 level.Many time the banknifty witness/attracted the selling pressure at this level near 11440 level and fell down back to 11100-200 level.This is what we expect on the coming days.This hike is also caused due to the F&O closing on 28.7.2011.We need to consider the tomorrow the RBi policy of hiking another Repo Rate...!! At this scenario , as usual we will not advise to go fresh Longs.The Greece and US debt crisis may accelerate further.

The Nifty manage to cross over the 5655 level ,but have not crossed the 200DMA.If it fall by any chance below 50DMA another fall or a range bound market between 5410-700 may repeat once again.Above 5740 the Nifty may attract fresh/panic buying.Today the market shown a running gaps between 648-700 level.One can aggressively go short in Nifty with strict Stop Loss at 5740.The target we can expect are 5630/610 and 5578 level.

At this point of time the banking stocks is better to avoid /remaining in long.The .25 Bps rate hike will have minor -impact on banks...but if the hike is above .25Bps or .50BPS may have great '- 'ive'impact on banking sectors.

The Reliance results may have the post impact reaction on tomorrow market and tomorrow it can slide down as we have seen in the past before result the stocks shoot up and after the result,even if it is good it used fall..So watch out tomorrow RIL.The profit gone up to +17%.

Now The banknifty may slide down to 11260 level below it can take support near 10970.Now it entered in a strong resistances zone above 460 if it sustain for 2 days the context may change.So lets observe till f&o closing then we can take position or just skip trading in July and jump to Aug future..That is an ideal choice.

Banknifty View for 22.07.2011

The banknifty today opened in gap down in 11152 and gone to 180 from there it fell down to11110 and sarply bounced up and marked a days high of 11230 and gave up all the gains in less than 5 mints.We sold Bn today again and again when it gone to 200+ level and covered all intraday short in 11110-20 level and made about 100+ points in intraday.As far as the positional are concerned still we remain in shorts in Nifty&banknifty.The Bn made a days low of 11035 where as the nifty touched the days low of 5532 and crawled in range.

The banking stocks are still attracting a sell and the bn may slide down to 10900 level.The nifty today broken the support area 5555 but price wise did'nt show much fall.So one can consider short below 5555/5510 and the bear can loose power in 610 level.One can reverse short there.The banknifty was unable to cross the 11440 level decisively as per we mentioned in our earlier post's.It was taking good support in 1200 level many time ,but last 2 days it broken this support and today it gone down to the days low of 11035 level and there too it attracted fresh sell..This indicates the weakness may remain some more time.The banks discounted the price in advance..This may caused due to the coming Repo Rate hike/Global crisis.So at this point of time when you go long apply sl/ trailing Sl.it is must.

After the 2008 meltdown now the market is facing a similar/less situation.Many Economical facts shows more negative than positives.The trader just be cautious and have your own trading plan to win the battle.

Banknifty View for 20.07.2011

The Market opened in BULL's Zone and attacked the bulls heavily and the bear won the battle.The market moved last five days like a snail and yesterday shown some high jump and today opening it marked a high but couldn't stay back.

The Nifty opened in 5651 and touched a days high 5658.90 and fell sharply down to days low of 5554 level.The banknifty opened in 11 392 and punched a days high at 403 and fell back to 11370 and try to sustain/claim up!! but failed in its attempt drastically,As it gave up about 250 points from day high to low.(Days low 11156 )

We have been mentioning not to remain in longs in higher level.The Bn we covered STBT in the opening near 370 as it opened near the 200DMA..but it technically fooled us!! Luckily we had our old positional shorts (sold in 11460 level) .That we covered in low near 11170+240 levels.Still holding balance shorts.The Nifty we sold positional in 5760(July 1st week) and today we thought of reversing but luckily escaped.

This fall is caused by the weakness of banks stocks...almost all the banks fell down.The nifty still in a range bound where as the Bn is not.It is in bear mode.The nifty now took support in 5555 level once so still there is a hope for its upmove...but below 510 level the nifty too join the bear stream..

what next?

Considering the crisis in Greece and other Europe union the global economy may face severe crisis on the coming days.Our market the FII's made this rally and now last few days the fii's buying is visibly reduced...it means if they start pouring selling it can cause a major correction.

Today the FII's sold index future,option and stock 1238 crores.DII's sold about 226 crores.The FII's bought in cash about 293 crores.

Banknifty View for 20.07.2011

The Morning when we saw the nifty opening high made at 5662 we gone long in bank nifty around 11224 and exited in 260 level and also made 2 sell in 11370+level and covered the same in 325+345 levels respectively.We also sold in nifty around 640 and covered the same in 616.

Though the nifty made opening high 5662 and afterwards it fell down to day low 5561 and again shoot up to 640 level and lastly traded near 620.The SBI made a certain jump up and pulled up the Bn and made a running gap up and touched a days high of 11379.The 11200 level now seems to be a support for bn.The 400 level attract fresh selling...so it may again crawls sideways between these level.

Banknifty View for 19.07.2011

The Banknifty and nifty last the charm today.The whole of today it was lack luster kinda of market.We just kept away as both these index's caged between two narrow walls and bounced within.This kind of market is not good for trading as it only hit sl rather target.So whole day was wasted.

The Nifty a move above 5655 and Bn above 11456 only bring some moment for a rally or the correction will be active below 5510 and Bn below 11180 levels.

Either the break out or break down only can lead a clear direction.

Banknifty View for 15.07.2011

Banknifty weekly chart

They Say " The Driver Should expect the un-expected" while driving.

Today the market was behaved the same.Technically it shown strength and sentimentally it was weak(Bombay blast) and fooled all kinds of traders impartialy.The thump rule of technical Analysis says- "market beat every one".

When the market opened in gap down we expected it will fall more as we hold the positional short when we about to place buy in 11100 level ,it just punched days low of 11103.50 and sharply bounced up and didn't give chance to cover short it gone up&up with leaving so many running gaps and finally touched a days high of 11405.The nifty to touched days low and gone to days high of 5667 and it would have triggered all the Sl/SAR that was placed anywhere.At last it gave up almost 50% gain in no time during market closing.

Today we didn't placed any sl but we shorted near 11250 and again in 350 level and just waited patiently as the market pulse was indicated something cooking unusually...When a steep fall happened we covered all shorts and gained profit in intraday both Nifty and banknifty.why the Bn gone to 405 level and fall back to 220 level in less than 10 mins?? There is no technical answer to it..Today there are so many people called who are not our clients,saying they gone long in nifty near 5640 level..when it came down to 5580 they didn't know what to do? because they all were fooled technically as the nifty jumped beyond the resistance zone and thought of carring longs and at last the market fooled many.

Now the Nifty and banknifty are held in between.but in general the market may behave in negative bias.When we see the global cues' most of the index's are any time may burst out..The US current dept gone to 14 trillion approx.When we look out this in a macro economical perspective it is not going to favour the bulls.

Our market now driven by the FII's and don't know when they kick off..So be attentive while trading and maintain your own trading plan to safe guard your investments.

3-Blast In Mumbai.21 people were Killed.

I am very sad and condemn the Mumbai attack..No banknifty update today.

It is very evident the so call human beings them self called Homo sapiens is a utter failure.We still live in a barbarous community where the people are dare to kill so many innocents.Life has no value.It seems it is very futile.


...I really don't know whom they are showing their anger.Is this the way to kill so many mercilessly who is no way connected? Even the animal kill other animal only for their meat.Killing other people and make the world stunned becoming a trend of the ongoing terrorists.Who can stop this..Evey one among us became deaf...we don't hear nothing..just the blast became a routine life and every now and then we hear news and forgot all about.Who is there to safe guard the innocent life??Are we ready to find out the source for these cause and going to end? or there is no end to this killings?

For every technological advancement we proclaim and raise our collars.What happen to all you surveillance/security system?

All, i understood the so called homosapiens is utterly failed. It is not the first time for Mumbai.The terrorists target city is Mumbai again and again and that too a planned attacks in 3 places in same day.We are not still ready/prepared ourselfs to stop such attacks.Our information sysytem is not upto the mark to save the innocent life's here.

All the earlier attacks and the terrorist are still not punished..the case is still going on and wasting so much of our nations money.Still we have not learned lesson and every attacks become hot news and we forget latter on..

I am really sad and condem this attack.We should make a pull stop to this.lets unite and support our nation.Who ever have information share with the intelligence agency's.Do not afraid.Unless,we as a citzen of the country need to end this atrocious attacks and grow peace here.

Banknifty View for 13.07.2011

"The Bank nifty now may slide down to 10980 level below this it can slide to the earlier start 10600 level.It can attract fresh buying above 11392 below it looks bearish only and may correct some more downwards towards 10,980 level.The US Market trading in red as of now.The market we expect open in gap down tomorrow."

This above we wrote in yesterday's post -The market preview of today..what we have foreseen same thing happened today the banknifty opened in gap down and touched the days low 10975.We stated it can fall down to 10980 level.How is it?

The banknifty jumped up after the news of IIP flashed in media.It went to the days high of 11170 and filled the opening gaps and fell back again down and broken the earlier days low 10995 to 975 level.Today to we made to attempts in Bn and made good gain in intra day.The Nifty we have positional short (made near the high 5750 level) and still holding positional short in both these index's

The Nifty below 5555 its very weak,so this support once broken the nifty fell down to the days low of 5502.The nifty failed to sustain above 5605 level and tomorrow it may move sideways again and may consolidate few more days.Below 5427 level major fall can occur.

When the market touched 5760 all Technical Analyst predicted the market will go to 5900+ level.We are the Only people who wrote,.... 'We skipped longs as we are not comfortable in remaining in long as the market looks to us it will fall.'

Now The market back to square one as per our prediction.

Banknifty view for 12.07.2011

Today in the opening we sold bank nifty near 11290.The high was seen only in the opening at 11295.Once sold we gave a buy target at 11,177 and that was achieved and the bn gone below to the target and made a days low of 11121.We wrote in our Friday preview go short in banknifty if it open below 11392 level and the target we gave was 11177 and that was done.The nifty when touched 5760 level we wrote in our blog we skipped long though its sound technically bullish but our experience showed this rally may crack and that made us to short in nifty and today it is down almost 160 points that is the notional gain all our positional client's made as of today.

Today we also sold in nifty and bought and when nifty touched 5605 we gone long and exited near 621.We sold SBI fresh near 2470 and bought the same in 2436 level.

Today market almost moved one side that was DOWN. it didn't give us a 2nd chance technically for a buy and sell.So, the opening short that gave a profit of 100+ points after wards we kept away.

Today the surprise thing, we noticed is ,the Nifty exactly touched the days low of 5605 and that was a earlier resistance.The market was found very difficult to break away this hurdle.So this give a little hope may be the Nifty take support from this and claim back to 655 level and consolidate again.if Nifty fail this time in its claim up to the ladder it can face the worst below 5427 level.It may witness the true correction.

The Bank nifty now may slide down to 10980 level below this it can slide to the earlier start 10600 level.It can attract fresh buying above 11392 below it looks bearish only and may correct some more downwards towards 10,980 level.The US Market trading in red as of now.The market we expect open in gap down tomorrow.

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Banknifty view for MONDAY

Today the market witnessed a huge selling pressure after a hesitant gap up opening.We just booked profit in our yesterday long in banknifty and also sold Nifty fresh near 5750 and covered the same near 680 level.We have made good day trading in Nifty,banknifty.When Bn touched first time low near 11390 we bought and exited in 330 and also fresh sold in 11330 in the after noon session and gave a buy target of 334 and that was archived.many our clients we advised to cover near 370 level.Over all our baskets were full.

In yesterday post, we stated , we have skipped remaining long in nifty however it seems bullish.Today it witnessed a huge selling and from the opening high 5760 to days low of 5661.Many readers mailed us ,Are you not bullish in Nifty??? after reading the post.Today the market proved our preview clearly.

The Sbi also, We gave sell calls in every high and it was manipulated and gone from 2460 to the high of 2525 and fell back to 2480 level.Many new bee's those come to market without having proper knowledge to the market,the market swipe the capital itself if they get caught on the wrong side.We have a different approach as the market gave a good lessons year after year and that only made us to guide& lead our clients better.

If the Nifty trade below 5672/703 dont attempt longs in nifty.it can fall back to 5616 level.the 616 and 605 act now a support.below that it can slide down to 5555 level.The Bn now weak below 11392 and today it touched the days low of 300 and lastly traded in 11320 level. One can go short with Sl at 11412 and expect a target of 11,117 level.

The rest view will be updated in sunday night..

Happy week end to all

Banknifty View for 8.7.2011

Today the Nifty& Banknifty crossed the 200DMA together.The BN were able to cross the 200 DMA the other day but NIFTY was not and today both were jumped up beyond 200DMA during market closing.The Banknifty opened in gap down at 11335 from yesterdays closing11317 and went down to the days low.We sold Bn in opening around 310 and covered in near 270 exactly near days low we were expecting the target of 262 but due to the Nifty strength we covered short. We also covered Nifty short near 5650 that was sold near 5680&710 level and when nifty crossed the hurdle 5668 we bought Nifty and sold the same in 720 level.After we sold the Nifty crossed 200DMA but we skipped fresh longs and made our position nil.

We made 3 attempts in Bn and 2 was successful and 3rd attempt of short near 420 SAR was triggered and we sold one long near 492 and remaining one long we just keeping as today both these index's jumped&closed above 200 DMA.Not just that the 'NSE ADVANCES : 986;NSE DECLINES : 420' this Ratio also seems to be good.

The Tomorrow if banknifty go down below 11388 the weakness may prevail and nifty seems to have strong support in 5616 many days this support held well and the nifty made good consolidation and that only made nifty to jump up from days low 641 to 745 level within a day.Now the nifty has minour support in 5672 level.

We need to observe the follow up price action/range to remain in long in Nifty because it just crossed the 6700 level after a great struggle.So we just kept aside our self from fresh long...once a convincing follow ups is seen than we may take positional or it is better to do intraday trading.

Banknifty view for 7.7.2011

The banknifty and nifty showed weakness as we stated in our yesterday post.Both these index's today opened in mild gap down and shown weakness there on.The Bn touched a days high of 11444 and fell down to days low of 11281.We sold bn today at 11430 and 50% covered in 360 and balance 50% covered in-11332 level.Again we bought it in 325 and sold the same in 11370 level.So ,the intraday we made a net gain of 110 + points.Today the market gave a kind of indication for intraday trading unlike the last few days market shown a lackluster trade.

We sold Nifty positional short twice in 720+ 680 levels and not yet covered the short.
Intraday we made about 35 points in Nifty.We were mentioned the nifty may have resistance at 668, today it touched a days high of 5667.50.The support we said was 6616 and today nifty made exact low at 617.50 and shot up.The Nifty today was held well between this level where as the banknifty shown clear weakness as it broken down the 350 support and gone to 281 level.This happened due to today weakness in SBI.TheNifty was moved like a snail and on the coming session it may slide down to 555 level.The Bn now has support in 10912 and 11168 level breaking down these level bring down bn to 10800 level.

The banknifty is having selling pressure in 11430 level and the selling pressure is shallow and it could only brought down the price very little.This may be caused due to the FII's inflow.Today the FII's net buy seems very less about 220 crores compare to the past 10 days (Used to buy above 700-900 crores).

Today the hot news is the Textile minister Dayanidhi Maran whose involvement in the spectrum case, the cbi filled a case in SC and the opposition want the PM to drop him.The Murali Deora offered his resignation already...What next?? My crictic says there is a thread on the political front.

Banknifty View for 6.7.2011

The Banknifty today opened in Flat as we were expecting a gap down.Hence we sold yesterday and was ready to cover STBT-Short in low but the Bn opened in flat at 11415...So we sold fresh in the opening and covered both shorts in 11352 level and when it jumped up during market closing, we re-sold the smae in 11470 and covered the same in 440 level.The BN today was in very choppy mode and almost 4 hours we made no trade and kept aside.When it crossed the 200DMA we waited to sell at the days high and sold in 470 and it touched the days high of 11480.When we saw the Nifty was in indecive mode and shown weakness and was unable to hold beyond 5665 level, we also sold nifty and kept our sl @668 that sl was not hit .So, we remain short in nifty.

From last wed' the market was not giving good chances for multiple intraday trades and it is now in a kind of suffocating phase as the bulls and bears are in tough fighting.

The nifty is not crossed the 200DMA ,where as the BN could jump up due to the SBI,bank of baroda and and other banks stocks.The FII"s are pouring money into our market that shows strength( We really not able to judge thier motive).But when we see the volumes, it is too low than usuall.On the other hand the Telangana MP's resingnation and other political scenario (Lokpal+Scams) seems a real thread to our market.So we skiped longs in index future.The IIP forcast/expectation also not going to favour the market.The DII'S sold about 880 crores today.

We need to observe market few more days to identify the firm direction.Till such time it is better to be a witness.

Banknifty view for 6.7.2011

The Banknifty opened in gap up and went down to the days low of 11350 and again in the afternoon session it broke of the earlier days high and touched a days high of 11436 level.Were as the nifty was struck in a range bound between 5642- 670 and the day high was 690 that was done in the opening and unable to go up beyond 5670 level as the selling begun.

The Nifty can be bullish above the 200DMA around 5747 level.Now it is weak below the Fridays low 5616 level.The Bank nifty now weak below 11350 and it can fall down to 10900 level once broken down this support.The Bn left a gap from friday closing 11295 - todays low 350.There are also so many running gaps left unfilled.The next immdiate resistance for bn is in 1476 level.(200 DMA.

So, I would change my views only if the nifty & Bn closes above the 200 Dma till then the Nifty and Bn Crawls in sideways and any worst news come it can fall down anytime.Now the choppy market it is not good for day traders.

Banknifty view for 4.7.2011

The Friday market we have seen the selling pressure in nifty and Banknifty.The market manage to open in gap up but it failed to sustain in the higher levels as the profit booking and fresh selling brought it down both Nifty & Banknifty.The nifty opened in 5700 and touched a days high of 702 and fell down to a days low of 5616 level.The Bn opened in 11299 and touched in days high of 11346,but we couldn't see it was trading in 346 level,we could only see in 320 for few mints than it slides to the days low of 11212.We made intraday short and covered the same in 50+ points gain in the opening and also sold fresh in higher level during market closing.

The Nifty witnessed trading below 5650 level most of the time.it shown much weaker than Banknifty.We mentioned in our previous post the Bn face hurdle in 11333 and nifty will face hurdle in 728 level.Now the Monday market expected to face some more additional selling.As the context in our nation now may turn become sentimentally negative.The RBI hike the Repo rate once again and that make our banks to hike the lending rates for Auto& Reality sectors.Which is fundamentally a negative sign for banks.The another thread now is the Congress MP's of Andirapradesh are planning to resign in Monday as their demand of Independent Telungana is unfulfilled.

The Nifty by any chance falling down to 5603 make a new possibility of downward bias.The Bn now the 11212 act as minor support and falling down to 10918 may take the market back to square one.There are many talks in many blogs the Nifty will reach beyond 6400 level..!!! we really doubt this possibility now.However the Tech view's are strong the fundamentally our market is not that much bullish.In the recent past many times the correction was done from this current levels.Not just that,There are many gaps was left unfilled in this relief rally.